Go/no-go: should your HVAC company sell heat pumps?

What the assessment covers

The assessment answers four questions, each with a short recommendation.

1. Is there reachable demand? We look at the towns you already serve and the home types in them. A gas-heated suburb with newer ductwork, an oil-heated rural area and a condo-heavy core each suggest different heat-pump opportunities.
2. Can your crew absorb the work? Heat-pump installs compete with furnace replacements and boiler service for the same technicians. We estimate how many installs a month you can add before response times on existing customers slip.
3. Can you register for the programs that drive demand? Many rebate programs pay only when a registered or qualified company installs. We list the programs open in your province and what each asks of installers, linked to the official page.
4. Does the money work? We calculate your break-even job count and how long it would take at realistic monthly volumes.

Who it is for

The assessment suits three kinds of owners:

• Furnace and boiler companies that have never installed a heat pump and are fielding more customer questions about them each season.
• Air-conditioning companies with refrigeration skills already in the crew, wondering whether heating-season heat-pump work could fill their winter.
• Companies that tried heat pumps and stalled, who want an outside read on whether to recommit or drop the line.

It is less useful for companies already running a busy heat-pump department. Those owners usually need one of our other services.

A worked example

Here is the shape of the money question, with round numbers you can replace with your own.

The blended margin is about $2,820 per job (0.6 × $3,500 + 0.4 × $1,800). Break-even is roughly 16 jobs. At three installs a month from April to November, you pass break-even in about five and a half months. At one a month, you would not break even in the first year, and the recommendation would probably be "go narrower" (for example, ductless only in two towns) or "wait."

These are illustrations, not benchmarks. Your margins, costs and volumes decide the answer.

What you receive and when

You receive a written assessment of a few pages, not a slide deck. It includes:

• the recommendation (go, go narrower, or wait), with the reasons
• target towns and home types, in priority order
• the programs worth registering for, with links and "as of" dates
• the break-even calculation and the volume assumptions behind it
• the three gaps to close first, if any

Timing depends on how quickly your inputs arrive. Scope and timelines are confirmed in writing in your proposal.

How we measure whether it worked

An assessment is useful if it leads to a decision you can defend a year later. We suggest tracking three numbers from the day you decide:

• heat-pump installs per month against the volume assumed in the assessment
• gross margin per install against the assumed margin
• furnace and boiler response times, to confirm the new line is not starving the old one

If you continue with us, these become the first targets in your year-one growth plan.

Mistakes to avoid when deciding

• Deciding from national headlines. A federal announcement says little about demand in your three towns. Look at what is open where you work.
• Ignoring the crew. If your only refrigeration-qualified technician is also your top furnace technician, entering heat pumps may simply move revenue around.
• Pricing from a competitor's flyer. Their costs, warranty terms and callback rates are not yours.
• Buying stock before registering. If the program your customers depend on requires registration, get registered first. Our program registration page explains how we map that.

To start, call, text or email us with your service area and last season's job counts. Plans and pricing are on the pricing page.